Après deux chocs pétroliers : diagnostics et perspectives

In: Revue de l'OFCE, Band 1, Heft 1, S. 9-49

Abstract

Western economies have been undergoing a recession over the past two years. Though in a more favourable cyclical phase when hit by a second oil shock, less severe than the first, they had been structurally weakened. Moreover, international competition was more fierce while there was less scope for adaptation in policy. The recession now seems to be bottoming out. A fall in interest rates will allow activity to pick up slowly in the United States, though it might rekindle inflation. The depreciation of the Dollar against the Deutschmark which will probably ensue, would loosen restrictions on European economic policies. Any resulting upturn in activity will however be moderate, strong growth in world imports being unlikely since demand from non-industrialised countries will fall off. French performance in reaction to the external shocks of the seventies compares poorly with that of partner countries. The squeeze on profits which had followed the first oil crisis was reinforced by the second. Up to spring 1981, tight fiscal policy accentuated the sluggishness of activity. Compared with other countries, a less restrictive monetary stance enabled firms to use a greater degree of external funding. The new policy, implemented from mid-1981 onwards, has slightly increased personal incomes and thereby consumer spending. However, despite improvements in activity and profitability, firms have reduced their investment levels. In the absence of better growth prospects, these are unlikely to rise in the coming months, particularly if external circumstances necessitate continued high interest rates while inflation remains higher than in other industrialised countries.