Ce qu'il en coûte de réduire les déséquilibres

In: Revue de l'OFCE, Band 3, Heft 1, S. 5-49

Abstract

Structural problems, worsened by the oil shocks, called during the 70's for adjustments that made some degree of recession necessary. But all through the decade, economic policies followed in industrialised countries enabled economic agents to avoid these necessities by increasingly resorting to debt. These policies have gradually become restrictive during the recent years, enabling postponed adjustments to take place. This process is well under way, so that the factors of recession will probably fade away in the coming months ; but there is no reason why they should turn into stimulus for growth. Unless new, dynamic factors suddenly appear, no recovery can be expected in France's foreign environment in 1983. The results of France's expansionary policies in 1981 and of the shift of june 1982 can now be assessed. Household income increased noticeably and then faltered for a while. Employment suffered no important decline as industrial production remained flat and productivity slowly increased. But the trade gap widened, and presently reaches an annual rate of 80 billion francs. As long as a worldwide recovery was expected in the near future, the resulting indebtedness appeared as a temporary nuisance. But it can no longer be considered as such when in most foreign countries economic policies still focus on structural adjustment, nor be acceptable as the price for lonely growth. Should restrictive demand management be used as the only way to curb the trade gap, then industrial production would register a 5 to 10% decline.