Taux d'intérêt et croissance à long et à court terme

In: Revue de l'OFCE, Band 14, Heft 1, S. 59-86

Abstract

Interest rates, deflated by the présent and forecast price changes, are very high, compared with the average of the last thirty years. Will that last ? If so, will the recovery be impeded ? What part can each économie agent play in such a context ? Enlightening thèse issues brings us to see how interest rates and growth rates are linked from both opposite angles, the long and the short run.
In the long run théories based on the assumption of rational behaviour lead to identical interest and growth rates, when a equilibrated growth is reached. Sustaining the highest level of activity implies investing the exact amount of national income that returns to capital.
Real interest rates hâve actually been under growth rates, for the invest-ment has been more and more financed by monetary expansion. But shortage of capital and under-utilization took place at the same time, and unemployment appeared to stay. Still a sustained potential growth and consequently high real interest rates are allowed by the pending technical progress, providing that free compétition be restored.
In the short run both real interest rates and activity fluctuate. During the présent business cycle, the stage has not been reached where an inflation upsurge makes them fall.
In the United States, short term interest rates skyrocketed, and then financial markets became more attractive, with the policy mix of budgetary impulse and monetary restraint. The building up of public déficits stands in the way of a sharp decrease of long rates.
A way to secure a soft landing of the economy would be to combine cuts in american déficits with a more buoyant activity in Japan and Europe in a relatively strict monetary context.