Etats-Unis : la courte échelle

In: Revue de l'OFCE, Band 16, Heft 1, S. 47-114

Abstract

Economic growth slowed down after the sharp recovery of 1983-1984 and has remained sluggish over the past two years. Now that it is well advanced, the present business cycle does not look very dynamic. An upsurge of inflation has been prevented so far, but both fiscal and foreign deficits have increased so much that they now seem to call for transient and dangerous half-remedies : protectionism, arbitrary freeze of federal spending.
The fall of oil prices does have positive effects on the economy, for in the United States as elsewhere it has enabled interest rates to decline and household's purchasing power to increase. Housing and private consumption will therefore fuel economic growth this year.
In 1987, budgetary cuts will hamper economic activity and lower the public deficit, but not enough to stop the rise of the debt/Gnp ratio. Private investment, which is already falling in the energy sector, would become even less profitable should the fiscal reform be implemented. It might stay at the present level only if interest rates were to decline further.
Despite the recent surge in equipment expenditures, american competitiveness has not fully recovered. Productivity has not increased rapidly enough in the sectors where competition is fierce. The decline of the dollar is not ample enough to enable by itself the current balance to improve significantly.
Having reached such a situation, the United States now rely upon other developped countries to pull their own growth through accelerating exports. The alternative to stronger international competition is another fall in the exchange rate of the dollar.