L'apparition d'un nouveau Zimbabwe dans une Afrique australe en mutation : origines et répercussions

In: Politique étrangère: revue trimestrielle publiée par l'Institut Français des Relations Internationales, Band 45, Heft 2, S. 407-436

Abstract

The rise of the new Zimbabwe in a changing Southern Africa: origins and repercussions, by John Barrat
In 1974, the collapse of Portugal's domination of Angola and Mozambique turned international attention to Southern Africa and to the future of Rhodesia in particular. Regional negotiations, organised on the initiative of Vorster and Kaunda, then the Geneva Conference in 1979, were unsuccessful and led to an escalation of the conflict. An internal settlement supported by the South Africans, who sought to apply it in Namibia, was also a failure. The 1979 elections and the victory of Muzorewa did not put an end to the conflicts, which strengthened the position of those who refused to recognise Zimbabwe-Rhodesia. The support brought by the United States and the Commonwealth to the Lancaster House agreements and the massive polling give all the more credit to Robert Mugabe's victory in February 1980. His conciliatory and realistic attitude prevented the exodus of the Whites. The pro blems of Zimbabwe remain nonetheless difficult to solve: reconstruction of the economy, unemployment, the need of land reform, ethnic problems, maintaining of unity in the country and within Mugabe's party. If political stability is maintained and economic growth achieved, this new state can be expected to play a leading role in Africa and in the Third World generally. Already the existence of Zimbabwe is reducing the economic and political influence of South Africa in the region and may lead Pretoria to rethink the Namibian problem and to consider negotiating with all the parties engaged in the conflict. The victory of Mugabe will undoubtedly reinforce black aspirations for a political change which the tide of history cannot halt.