The American Phoenix: And why China and Europe will struggle after the coming slump

Abstract

2012 will bring another global economic crisis. It could have been avoided if America and other deficit countries had embarked on currency devaluation and tighter domestic policy to sustain recovery and growth, boost exports and savings, while cutting excessive debts built up in the pre-crisis 'gilded age'. But they didn't. Instead they continued to run large government deficits, effectively transferring debt from private to public hands, rather than reducing it through rising national savings rates. Savings-rich countries, notably China, have not helped. To get the global economy in better bal.