Cover -- Title -- Copyright -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Introduction -- THE EVOLUTION OF TERRORISM AS A STRATEGIC THREAT -- A WORD ABOUT SCOPE AND TERMS -- THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK -- CASE SELECTION -- OVERVIEW OF CHAPTERS -- CHAPTER ONE: Decapitation: Catching or Killing the Leader -- WHAT DECAPITATION MEANS -- THE ARREST OF TOP LEADERS -- Abimael Guzmán and Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path) -- Abdullah Öcalan and the Kurdistan Workers' Party -- Mickey McKevitt and the Real Irish Republican Army -- Shoko Asahara and Aum Shinrikyo -- ASSASSINATION OR "TARGETED KILLING -- The Philippines' Abu Sayyaf -- Russia and Chechen Leaders -- Israel's "Targeted Killings -- HOW DECAPITATION ENDS TERRORISM -- CHAPTER TWO: Negotiations: Transition toward a Legitimate Political Process -- WHY GOVERNMENTS NEGOTIATE -- WHY GROUPS NEGOTIATE -- CASE STUDIES OF NEGOTIATIONS -- The Northern Ireland Peace Process -- The Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process -- The LTTE (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, or Tamil Tigers) -- PROMISING AND UNPROMISING CIRCUMSTANCES FOR NEGOTIATIONS -- Stalemate -- Strong Leadership -- Sponsors -- Suicide Campaigns -- Splintering -- Spoilers -- Setting and Story -- HOW NEGOTIATIONS END TERRORISM -- CHAPTER THREE: Success: Achieving the Objective -- WHAT DOES "SUCCESS" MEAN? -- Survival -- Achievement of Objectives -- CASES OF SUCCESS -- Irgun Zvai Le'umi (Irgun or IZL) -- The African National Congress and Umkhonto -- Other Notable Cases -- HOW SUCCESS ENDS TERRORISM -- CONCLUSIONS -- CHAPTER FOUR: Failure: Imploding, Provoking a Backlash, or Becoming Marginalized -- IMPLOSION: MISTAKES, BURNOUT, AND COLLAPSE -- Failure to Pass the Cause to the Next Generation -- Infighting and Fractionalization -- Loss of Operational Control -- Accepting an Exit -- MARGINALIZATION: DIMINISHING POPULAR SUPPORT
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Amid the fear following 9/11 and other recent terror attacks, it is easy to forget the most important fact about terrorist campaigns: they always come to an end--and often far more quickly than expected. Contrary to what many assume, when it comes to dealing with terrorism it may be more important to understand how it ends than how it begins. Only by understanding the common ways in which terrorist movements have died out or been eradicated in the past can we hope to figure out how to speed the decline of today's terrorist groups, while avoiding unnecessary fears and costly overreactions. In How Terrorism Ends, Audrey Kurth Cronin examines how terrorist campaigns have met their demise over the past two centuries, and applies these enduring lessons to outline a new strategy against al-Qaeda. This book answers questions such as: How long do terrorist campaigns last? When does targeting the leadership finish a group? When do negotiations lead to the end? Under what conditions do groups transition to other forms of violence, such as insurgency or civil war? How and when do they succeed or fail, and then disappear? Examining a wide range of historical examples--including the anti-tsarist Narodnaya Volya, the Provisional IRA, Peru's Shining Path, Japan's Aum Shinrikyo, and various Palestinian groups--Cronin identifies the ways in which almost all terrorist groups die out, including decapitation (catching or killing the leader), negotiation, repression, and implosion. How Terrorism Ends is the only comprehensive book on its subject and a rarity among all the books on terrorism--at once practical, optimistic, rigorous, and historical
Amid the fear following 9/11 and other recent terror attacks, it is easy to forget the most important fact about terrorist campaigns: they always come to an end--and often far more quickly than expected. Contrary to what many assume, when it comes to dealing with terrorism it may be more important to understand how it ends than how it begins. Only by understanding the common ways in which terrorist movements have died out or been eradicated in the past can we hope to figure out how to speed the decline of today's terrorist groups, while avoiding unnecessary fears and costly overreactions. In How Terrorism Ends, Audrey Kurth Cronin examines how terrorist campaigns have met their demise over the past two centuries, and applies these enduring lessons to outline a new strategy against al-Qaeda. This book answers questions such as: How long do terrorist campaigns last? When does targeting the leadership finish a group? When do negotiations lead to the end? Under what conditions do groups transition to other forms of violence, such as insurgency or civil war? How and when do they succeed or fail, and then disappear? Examining a wide range of historical examples--including the anti-tsarist Narodnaya Volya, the Provisional IRA, Peru's Shining Path, Japan's Aum Shinrikyo, and various Palestinian groups--Cronin identifies the ways in which almost all terrorist groups die out, including decapitation (catching or killing the leader), negotiation, repression, and implosion. How Terrorism Ends is the only comprehensive book on its subject and a rarity among all the books on terrorism--at once practical, optimistic, rigorous, and historical
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