Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs

Abstract

Cover -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Empirical Methodology -- A. Country-level analysis -- B. Industry-level analysis -- III. Results -- A. Aggregate Results -- IV. Conclusion -- References -- List of Tables -- 1. Data Sources for Country-level Analysis -- 2. List of Countries in Country-level Analysis -- 3. List of Countries in Industry-level Analysis -- 4. List of Industries -- 5. List of Advanced Economies in Country-level Analysis -- 6. The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Tariffs -- List of Figures -- 1. The Effect of Tariffs -- 2. The Effect of Tariffs - Tariff Increases vs. Decreases -- Advanced Economies vs. Emerging Markets & Developing Economies -- 3. The Effect of Tariffs - Expansions vs. Recessions -- 4. Robustness for Output -- 5. Robustness for Productivity -- 6. The Effect of Tariffs using Industry-level Data -- Appendices -- I. Three Episodes of Tariff Hikes -- II. Results for Unemployment, Inequality, Real Exchange Rate, and Trade Balance -- III. Robustness Results for Unemployment, Inequality, Real Exchange Rate, and Trade Balance -- IV. Results for Consumption and Inflation -- V. Instrumental Variable -- Endnotes