Probability is all we have: uncertainties, delays, and environmental policy making
In: The Environment--problems and solutions
In: Routledge Library Editions: Environmental Policy Ser. v.10
Cover -- Half Title -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Original Title Page -- Original Copyright Page -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- Figures -- Tables -- Chapter 1 Outcome and Value Uncertainty in Environmental Policy -- Outcome Uncertainty -- Value Uncertainty -- Outline -- Part I Outcome Uncertainty: Stratospheric Ozone Depletion -- Chapter 2 The Policy Problem -- Current POD Production and Applications -- Outline -- A. Characterizing Uncertainty About Outcomes -- Chapter 3 Probability- Based Scenarios -- Scenarios Based on a Proxy for Stratospheric Ozone Depletion -- Chapter 4 The Distribution of the Score Function -- Aggregating Chemical Use -- Deriving Scenarios for Individual Chemicals -- Chapter 5 Subjective Marginal Probability Distributions for Potential Ozone Depleters -- Subjective Probability Distribution for the Period Before 2000 -- Subjective Probability Distribution for the Period Beyond 2000 -- Marginal Distributions for Individual Chemical Production -- Chapter 6 Production and Emission Scenarios -- Choosing Quantiles for Scenarios -- Chemical Use and Emission Scenarios -- Model-Calculated Ozone Depletion -- Chapter 7 Conclusions -- B. Decision Making Under Diminishing Uncertainty -- Chapter 8 Timing Responses to Potential Stratospheric Ozone Depletion -- Chapter 9 The Decision Framework -- The General Problem -- A Simplified Model and a Partial Solution -- The Critical Probability -- Parameters of the Model -- Calculation of Resource Costs and Critical Probabilities -- Chapter 10 Results and Sensitivity Analysis -- The Critical Probability -- The Effects of Alternative Proposed Current Regulations -- Sensitivity of the Results to the Choice of Parameters -- Chapter 11 Conclusions -- Part II Value Uncertainty: Food-Borne Risk -- Chapter 12 Valuing Health Risks -- Methods for Valuing Health Risks -- Outline.
In: The Environment--problems and solutions
Problem melden