Tax Reforms and Fiscal Shock Smoothing

Abstract

Cover -- TABLE OF CONTENTS -- ABSTRACT -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. DATA AND EMPIRICAL METHODOLOGY -- A. Data -- B. Empirical Framework -- III. EMPIRICAL RESULTS -- A. Baseline -- B. Robustness Checks -- IV. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS -- REFERENCES -- TABLES -- Table 1. Example: Identification of Reform Episodes -- Table 2: Effect of Tax Reforms on Fiscal Shock Smoothing -- FIGURES -- 1. Direct Tax Reform Indicators Over Time -- 2. Indirect Tax Reform Indicators Over Time -- 3. Effect of Direct Tax Reforms on Fiscal Shock Smoothing -- 4. Effect of PIT Reforms on Fiscal Shock Smoothing -- 5. Effect of CIT Reforms on Fiscal Shock Smoothing -- 6. Effect of Indirect Tax Reforms on Fiscal Shock Smoothing -- 7. Effect of Direct Tax Reforms on Fiscal Shock Smoothing Depending on the Direction of the Reform -- 8. Effect of Indirect Tax Rate Reforms on Fiscal Shock Smoothing Depending on the Direction of the Reform -- 9. Effect of Direct Tax Reforms on Tax Elasticity with Respect to Output -- 10. Effect of Indirect Tax Reforms on Tax Elasticity with Respect to Output -- 11. Effect of PIT Reforms on Tax Progressivity -- 12. Effect of VAT Reforms on C-Efficiency -- 13. Effect of Direct Tax Reforms on Fiscal Shock Smoothing Controlling for the Initial Level of Public Debt -- 14. IV Estimator: Effect of PIT Reforms on Tax Progressivity -- 15. GMM Estimator: Effect of Direct Tax Reforms on Fiscal Shock Smoothing -- 16. Alternative Reform Threshold: Effect of Tax Reforms on Fiscal Shock Smoothing -- 17. Alternative Reform Codification: Effect of Tax Reforms on Fiscal Shock Smoothing -- 18. Alternative Database: Effect of Tax Reforms on Fiscal Shock Smoothing -- APPENDICES -- Table A1. OECD: Distribution of Tax Policy Changes in the TPRD Database -- Table A2. 13 OECD Countries: Summary Statistics - Exogenous Database.