In: Routledge INEM Advances in Economic Methodology Ser.
Cover -- Half Title -- Series Page -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Dedication Page -- Contents -- Preface and acknowledgment -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 The meaning of causality -- 1.2 On referentialist semantics, case studies, and the choice of sample -- 1.3 The structure of the book -- 2 Regularities -- 2.1 Reducing causality to constant conjunctions -- 2.1.1 From constant conjunctions to the regularity view of laws -- 2.1.2 Further developments -- 2.1.3 Criticism and rejection of the regularity view -- 2.1.4 The regularity approach in the philosophy of economics -- 2.2 Establishing constant regularities -- 2.2.1 Econometric research -- 2.2.2 Cliometrics -- 2.2.3 Other methods -- 2.3 Policymaking on the basis of regularities -- 2.3.1 Cliometric results and (failed) interventions -- 2.3.2 Is theory-driven econometrics more reliable? -- 2.4 You shall not translate causal claims -- 3 Causality as changes in conditional probability -- 3.1 Probabilistic theories of causality -- 3.1.1 The menu of probabilistic definitions -- 3.1.2 Criticism and further differences -- 3.1.3 Probabilistic causality in the philosophy of economics -- 3.2 Testing for probabilistic dependencies -- 3.2.1 Causal inference from time-series data -- 3.2.2 Atheoretical, cross-sectional models -- 3.3 The common-cause fallacy and policy actions -- 3.4 Policymaking based on limited knowledge of causal structure -- 4 Counterfactuals -- 4.1 Counterfactual conditionals and causality -- 4.1.1 Classical formulation -- 4.1.2 Recent developments -- 4.1.3 Counterfactuals in the philosophy of economics -- 4.1.4 Philosophical views on inferring counterfactuals -- 4.2 Counterfactuals and causal inference in economics -- 4.2.1 What would be the level of economic development if a stimulus were not introduced? -- 4.2.2 Case study of the influence of intellectual property on R& -- D.
In: Routledge INEM advances in economic methodology 22
In: Routledge INEM advances in economic methodology 22
"Approximately one in six top economic research papers draws an explicitly causal conclusion. But what do economists mean when they conclude that A 'causes' B? Does 'cause' say that we can influence B by intervening on A, or is it only a label for the correlation of variables? Do quantitative analyses of observational data followed by such causal inferences constitute sufficient grounds for guiding economic policymaking? The Philosophy of Causality in Economics addresses these questions by analyzing the meaning of causal claims made by economists and the philosophical presuppositions underlying the research methods used. The book considers five key causal approaches: the regularity approach, probabilistic theories, counterfactual theories, mechanisms, and interventions and manipulability. Each chapter opens with a summary of literature on the relevant approach and discusses its reception amongst economists. The text details case studies, and goes on to examine papers which have adopted the approach in order to highlight the methods of causal inference used in contemporary economics. It analyses the meaning of the causal claim put forward, and finally reconstructs the philosophical presuppositions accepted implicitly by economists. The strengths and limitations of each method of causal inference are also considered in the context of using the results as evidence for policymaking. This book is essential reading to those interested in literature on philosophy of economics, as well as the philosophy of causality and economic methodology in general."
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