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Prosperity and Depression: A Theoretical Analysis of Cyclical Movements

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Chapter 8 Analysis of Theories Part I -- chapter 24 Analysis of Theories Part I -- chapter Analysis of Theories Part I -- chapter Chapages 5 Under-consumption Theories -- chapter Chapages 5 Under-consumption Theories 141 -- chapter 144 99 -- chapter 194 Analysis of Theories Part I -- chapter Chapages 8 'Recent Discussions on the Trade Cycle 199 -- chapter Chapages 8 Recent Discussions on the Trade Cycle 203 -- chapter Analysis of Themes -- Part I -- chapter Chapages 8 Recent Discussions on the Trade Cycle 223 -- chapter 248 Analy sis of Theories Part I -- chapter Part II SYNTHETIC EXPOSITION RELATING TO THE NATURE AND CAUSES OF BUSINESS CYCLES -- chapter 35 Nature and Causes of the Cycle Part II -- chapter Chapages -- chapter 396 Nature and Causes of the Cycle Part II -- chapter The Up-tum : Revival 403 -- chapter 404 Nature and Causes of the Cycle Part II -- chapter Nature and Causes of the Cycle -- part Part III -- A Critique of Certain Tendencies in Modem Economic Theory -- chapter C. C rit iq u e : Te ndenc ies in M odern E co no m ic Th eo ry -- chapter Chapages 13 Critique: Tendencies in Modern Economic Theory 457 employment, changes in output due to changes in employment.1 (Output can, of course, change without changes in employment{u2014} harvest changes being the most important example. But the short run changes in aggregate output that constitute the business cycle are clearly not of that nature{u2014}which does not, however, exclude that crop changes as well as other exogenous disturbances may have great causal significance for the cycle). I follow Mitchell and Burns in defining the cycle as the shortest observable fluctuations in activity. In their words, ? business cycles vary from more than one year to ten or twelve years and are not divisible into shorter cycles of similar character with amplitudes approximating their own ?.2 Furthermore, I make no attempt at finding a regular sequence or pattern of ? minor ? and ? major ? cycles (as Hansen thinks there exists). Cycles do, of course, differ greatly in duration and enormously in amplitude; some depressions are mild, others severe; some upswings strong, others weak and abortive.3 But the most careful investigations in have convinced -- chapter historical environment and external disturbances is a complicated chemical compound and not a mechanical mixture whose con{u00AD} stituent parts are separable by more or less mechanical statistical devices. The statistical decomposition of time series in cycles and trend is an insoluble problem.1 But this does by no means exclude that it is often possible to explain particular cycles or phases (depressions or expansions) in terms of exogenous forces or endogenous processes or to point to strongly intensifying or mitigating factors which explain the mildness or severity of a particular depression, or weakness or strength of a particular upswing. Let me mention only one or two examples{u2014}more will follow later. The intensification of the boom following the outbreak of the war in Korea does not require any further explana{u00AD} tion than reference to the wave of Governmental and private spending engendered by the war.2 The great depression of the io,s in the U.S., whatever its deeper causes, was undoubtedly tremendously intensified by the collapse of the banking system. It is disturbing that economists do not see eye to eye on all these matters. But we can take consolation in the fact that despite great divergences in the interpretation and explanation, different -- chapter 468 Monetary Factors Affecting Economic Stability Part III -- chapter Nam e In d ex t o Parts Iand II -- 337339 -- chapter Sub je c t In d ex t o Parts Iand II -- chapter 496 Sub je c t In d ex t o Parts Iand II.

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Buch(elektronisch)#12011

Prosperity and Depression: A Theoretical Analysis of Cyclical Movements

Haberler, Gottfried; Salerno, Joseph T.

Cover -- Half Title -- Title Page -- CopyrighTPage -- CONTENTS -- INTRODUCTION TO THE TRANSACTION EDITION -- FOREWORD TO 1964 EDITION -- WHY DEPRESSIONS AR E EXTINCT -- PREFACE TO 1957 EDITION -- INTRODUCTION -- Purpose of the book -- Analysis of theories -- Synthetic exposition of the nature of the cycle -- Bibliography -- Part I SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS OF THE THEORIES OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE -- CHAPTER 1. PRELIMINARY REMARKS -- 1. The Explanation of the Business Cycle -- Plurality of causes -- Theories differ mainly as to emphasis -- Classification of causal factors -- Exogenous and endogenous theories -- Inherent instability in the economic system -- Mechanical analogy -- 2. Method of the Following Analysis -- Principles of selection -- Heads of analysis -- CHAPTER 2. THE PURELY MONETARY THEORY -- 1. Preliminary Remarks -- Cyclical fluctuations of MV -- 2. The Theory of Mr. R. G. Hawtrey -- General Characteristics : Importance of consumers' outlay -- Instability of money and credit -- 3. The Upswing -- Driving force of bank expansion -- The strategic position of the merchant -- Effects of rising prices -- Instability of the velocity of circulation -- 4. The Upper Turning-point -- Credit restriction responsible -- The wage-lag, the cash drain and the gold standard -- 5. The Downswing -- The reverse of the upswing -- 6. Revival: Sufficiency of credit expansion -- Sufficiency of credit expansion -- A credit deadlock -- Wage-lag and bank policy -- 7. Rhythm and Periodicity -- Rigid reserve proportions -- No trade cycle since the war -- 8. Special Features of the Theory -- Fluctuations in investment in fixed capital -- Implications for policy -- 9. International Complications -- 10. Concluding Remarks -- CHAPTER 3. THE OVER-INVESTMENT THEORIES -- 1. General Characteristics -- Maladjustments, vertical and horizontal

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