In: New York Academy of Sciences Series
Cover -- Title page -- Copyright page -- Contents -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Note on Further Reading and Sources -- About the Companion Website -- 1: A Tricky, High-Stakes Game -- 1.1 Where We Are Today -- 1.2 What We Need to Do Better -- 1.3 How Can We Do Better? -- Questions -- Further Reading and Sources -- References -- 2: When Nature Won -- 2.1 The Best-Laid Plans -- 2.2 Why Hazard Assessment Went Wrong -- 2.3 How Mitigation Fared -- 2.4 The Challenges Ahead -- Questions -- Further Reading and Sources -- References -- 3: Nature Bats Last -- 3.1 Prediction Is Hard -- 3.2 Forecasts, Predictions, and Warnings -- 3.3 Earthquake Prediction -- 3.4 Chaos -- Questions -- Further Reading and Sources -- References -- 4: Uncertainty and Probability -- 4.1 Basic Ideas -- 4.2 Compound Events -- 4.3 The Gaussian Distribution -- 4.4 Probability vs Statistics -- 4.5 Shallow and Deep Uncertainties -- Questions -- Further Reading and Sources -- References -- 5: Communicating What We Know and What We Don't -- 5.1 Recognizing and Admitting Uncertainties -- 5.2 Precision and Accuracy -- 5.3 Testing Forecasts -- 5.4 Communicating Forecasts -- Questions -- Further Reading and Sources -- References -- 6: Human Disasters -- 6.1 Assessing Hazards -- 6.2 Vulnerability and Interconnections -- 6.3 The 2008 US Financial Disaster -- 6.4 Pseudodisasters and Groupthink -- 6.5 Disaster Chic -- Questions -- Further Reading and Sources -- References -- 7: How Much Is Enough? -- 7.1 Rational Policy Making -- 7.2 Lessons from National Defense -- 7.3 Making Choices -- 7.4 Uncertainty and Risk Aversion -- 7.5 Present and Future Value -- 7.6 Valuing Lives -- 7.7 Implications for Natural Hazard Mitigation -- Questions -- Further Reading and Sources -- References -- 8: Guessing the Odds -- 8.1 Big Events Are Rare -- 8.2 Time-Independent Probability Models.
A tricky, high-stakes game -- When nature won -- Nature bats last -- Uncertainty and probability -- Communicating what we know and what we don't -- Human disasters -- How much is enough? -- Guessing the odds -- When's the next earthquake? -- Assessing hazards -- Mitigating hazards -- Choosing mitigation policies -- Doing better.
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