The Risky Shift in Policy Decision Making: A Comparative Analysis

In: Policy sciences: integrating knowledge and practice to advance human dignity ; the journal of the Society of Policy Scientists, Band 7, Heft 3, S. 365-370

Abstract

The phenomenon of the risky shift, or the greater likelihood of individuals making risky decisions after they have engaged in group discussions of these decisions, is fairly well documented. However, data from 432 decision-makers from ten nations, collected through methods developed by W. L. Tullar & D. F. Johnson ("Group Decision-Making and the Risky Shift: A Transnational Perspective," Technical Report 48, Rochester: Management Research Center, U of Rochester, 1972) shows consistent moves toward greater risk-avoidance when problems are important & decision-makers initially less cautious. This suggests that risk-acceptance in groups is contingent upon other factors which must be analyzed for each situation. 2 Tables. Modified HA.