Economic Schocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach

In: Journal of political economy, Band 112, Heft 4, S. 725-753

Abstract

Estimating the impact of economic conditions on the likelihood of civil conflict is difficult because of endogeneity & omitted variable bias. We use rainfall variation as an instrumental variable for economic growth in 41 African countries during 1981 99. Growth is strongly negatively related to civil conflict: a negative growth shock of five percentage points increases the likelihood of conflict by one-half the following year. We attempt to rule out other channels through which rainfall may affect conflict. Surprisingly, the impact of growth shocks on conflict is not significantly different in richer, more democratic, or more ethnically diverse countries. 6 Tables, 2 Figures, 2 Appendixes, 44 References. Adapted from the source document.