ON METHODS OF CONFLICT PREVENTION

In: Journal of peace research, Band 2, S. 178-192

Abstract

Conflict is defined as a situation where actors are pursuing incompatible goals. It is assumed that the actors are acting if & only if they deem the value of the goal, weighed by the probability of attaining it, to be greater than the value of the means used, ie the value lost through the struggle. In terms of the variables of a conflict model, conditions of power balance are formulated, ie of a situation where both parties are determined to defend themselves if attacked, & neither attacks. A distinction is drawn between the pol'al burden of military aggression & the physical cost of warfare; similarly, it is distinguished between valuation of the goal from the point of view of expansion & from that of security. On the basis of these distinctions, the concepts of nonexpansive attitude & aggressiveness by fear are defined & their influence on the conditions of power balance is discussed. It is shown that in a situation where none of the actors is expansive & both perceive the other party's att as nonexpansive, peace is independent of military methods of conflict prevention, & thus the concept of power balance cannot be applied. Nonmilitary methods of conflict prevention are defined as measures aiming at influencing the actor's attitude in the direction of nonexpansiveness. Finally, it is attempted to formulate a survey of nonmilitary conflict prevention measures, based in part on how these measures influence the actor's expectations concerning warfare & internat'l cooperation, & in part on which of the value variables determining the actor's attitude they affect. IPSA.