The Relevance of Group Membership for Personnel Selection: A Demonstration Using Bayes' Theorem

In: The Journal of social, political and economic studies, Band 19, Heft 3, S. 323-358

Abstract

Groups such as races, sexes, ethnic groups, & age classes are shown to be relevant to problems of selection for school & employment. Here, a Bayesian approach to problems of selection is developed & illustrated. The mean & standard deviation of the distribution of abilities in the candidate's group (race, sex, age, etc) constitute prior information; additional information is provided by the candidate's test scores. Combination of this information with the aid of Bayes's theorem provides a posterior estimate. It is shown that group membership is normally relevant to selection, implying a fundamental conflict between nondiscrimination (not using group membership for selection) & merit selection. Evaluation of the circumstances in which use of group membership is relevant to selection, reveals evidence that groups do differ in various attributes relevant to vocational success, including intelligence, literacy, personality, & criminality. 1 Figure, 102 References. Adapted from the source document.