The timing of protectionism

In: Review of international political economy: RIPE, Band 4, Heft 1

Abstract

Generates schedules of expected changes in the direction of tariff rates. Correlations of the expected schedules with the observed directional shifts demonstrate clearly the timing superiority of explanations based on long wave and external shock emphases. Yet even the strongest performing models do less well at levels of analysis other than the system level. (Original abstract-amended)