THE LONG PEACE - RESULT OF A BIPOLAR COMPETITIVE WORLD?

In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 35, Heft 1, S. 68-80

Abstract

ONE OF THE REASONS ADVANCED FOR THE ABSENCE OF A MAJOR WAR BETWEEN THE TWO SUPERPOWERS DURING THE FORTY-FIVE YEARS OF THEIR ENMITY SINCE WORLD WAR II IS THAT THE WORLD SYSTEM IN WHICH THEY FUNCTIONED WAS ESSENTIALLY BIPOLAR AND HENCE, PRESUMABLY, INHERENTLY MORE STABLE THAN PREVIOUS MULTIPOLAR WORLDS. IN THIS ARTICLE, A NONLINEAR MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION IS PRESENTED IN WHICH THE TRANSITION FROM PREDICTABLE LAMINAR TO UNPREDICATABLE TURBULENT FLOW IS THE MODEL MANIFESTION OF THE TRANITION FROM COLD TO HOT WAR IN THE WORLD SYSTEM BEING MODELLED. IT IS FOUND THAT THE REGIME OF STABILITY DECREASES AS THE SYSTEM COMPLEXITY INCREASES. THUS THE SIMPLE MODEL LENDS CREDENCE TO THE PRESUMPTION THAT A TRIPOLAR WORLD IS INHERENTLY LESS STABLE THAN THE CORRESPONDING BIPOLAR WORLD.