The Coming of Conflict to the Caspian Sea

In: Problems of post-communism, Band 50, Heft 3, S. 32-41

Abstract

Looks at current disputes over the legal status of the Caspian Sea to argue that a military conflict over hydrocarbon resources is inevitable. The five states that border the Caspian Sea (Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan) have been unable to resolve differences because of a deficient legal framework, poor delimitation, overlapping claims of ownership, & a preference for bilateral approaches. A comparison of military strengths notes that Russia still dominates; however, Iran has been expanding its military capabilities, & Azerbaijan has the next largest navy after Russia. The ultimate outcome will be determined by economic interests that are in turn molded by internal realities. Key domestic factors that are likely to shape each country's course of action are discussed. It is concluded that regime survival & elite psychology is likely to override rational behavior & result in a military conflict. The strength of military forces is less significant in a dispute that is over oil deposits rather than territory. The likelihood of US intervention in such a conflict is discussed. 2 Tables. Adapted from the source document.