Presidential Popularity and Presidential Elections

In: Public opinion quarterly: journal of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, Band 43, Heft 4, S. 532-534

Abstract

The seven elections since 1938 in which the incumbent president ran for reelection (in 1940, 1944, 1948, 1956, 1964, 1972, & 1976) are examined to compare presidential popularity-as assessed by the Gallup poll-with the percent of the popular vote won by the president. The correlation between these two variables is .737, & eliminating the results of the atypical election of 1972 (in which Nixon received 6.4% more votes than would have been predicted) leads to a correlation of .907. Prediction is made that if President Carter is renominated, a popularity figure of 40% or below would indicate little chance of reelection, a figure of above 50% would suggest a strong likelihood of reelection, & a figure in-between would mean that reelection would depend on Carter's capacity to get support from the Electoral college based on his popular votes. 2 Tables. D. Abrahams.