Riesgo politico y consolidacion democratica: una reinterpretacion del caso espanol (1975-1985)

In: Revista española de ciencia política, Heft 5, S. 49-77

Abstract

This article advances a reinterpretation of Spain's democratic transition & consolidation, one with important implications for our understanding of the lessons Spain offers regarding the prospects for peaceful transitions & especially consolidation in other countries, particularly those of the Third Wave. It uses an analysis of the regime preferences of various political leaders during the late stages of Francoism to challenge influential existing interpretations of the Spanish case. Data on these preferences, derived from a series of interviews conducted in the mid-1990's, are analyzed in terms of a model involving the costs of toleration versus repression of the opposition. The article concludes that while conditions facilitating a transition to democracy have been present in many countries, Spain was highly distinctive when it came to the beliefs informing the political leaders who instigated democratization. In particular, a dramatic decline in the perceived costs of toleration in Spain explains their long-term commitment to democracy, a commitment undergirding the rapid & distinctive consolidation of Spain's democracy. Tables, Graphs. Adapted from the source document.