MEASURING EFFECT AND ACTION IN INTERNATIONAL REACTION MODELS, EMPIRICAL MATERIALS FROM THE 1962 CUBAN CRISIS

In: Journal of peace research, Band 3-4, S. 170-188

Abstract

The Cuban crisis of Oct 1962 may be analyzed from several perspectives. Attention may be focused on the unique characteristics of the situation & sequence of events. The events may be examined to permit relevant comparisons with other crisis situations, both those resolved by war & those eventually resolved by nonviolent means. The conceptual framework for this analysis is a 2-step mediated stimulus-response model in which the acts of 1 nation are considered as inputs to other nations. Such psycho-pol'al variables as perceptions & expressions of hostility are traced over time by content analysis of documents to test the consistency of the model. In the Cuban crisis, both sides tended to perceive rather accurately the nature of the adversary's actions & then acted at an appropriate level. Efforts by either party to delay or reverse the escalation toward conflict were generally perceived as such, & responded to in like manner. IPSA.