Welchen Einfluss hat die Bundespolitik auf die Wahlentscheidung der Burger bei Landtagswahlen? Eine Analyse von Individualdaten im Bundeslander- und Zeitvergleich

In: Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen: ZParl, Band 38, Heft 3, S. 480-491

Abstract

Politicians & journalists usually regard state parliament elections as test elections for the incumbent federal government. In research, it is a common assumption that federal politics have a clear influence on state elections. This is particularly relevant when the election of the state parliament is held in the middle of the election period of the federal government. Such results are based on aggregate data that do not allow any statements about the motives of individual voters. Research based on individual data arrives at a more sophisticated result. In the direct perception of citizens, federal politics play an important role for their voting decision, but are less important than state politics. Indirect measurements of the relevance of federal politics confirm the influence of the satisfaction with the federal government on voting in favor of the CDU/CSU or the SPD at state elections is rather small. The approval of the federal government can influence individual voting decisions only in exceptional situations to a degree that is similar to the effects of the factors satisfaction with the state government & the preferred prime minister candidate. Tables. Adapted from the source document.