ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR AFRICA

In: Review of African political economy, Band 64, Heft 22, S. 275-278

Abstract

OUTPUT GROWTH FOR AFRICA IN 1994 WAS BETTER THAN IN 1993, BUT THE DECLINING TREND OF PER CAPITA INCOME WHICH STARTED IN 1990 CONTINUED. THIS ARTICLE ARGUES THAT MUCH DEPENDS ON EXTERNAL FACTORS--THE STRUCTURE OF GROWTH IN WORLD OUTPUT AND TRADE, DEMAND FOR AND PRICES OF PRIMARY COMMODITIES AS AGAINST MANUFACTURES, AND PERHAPS ESPECIALLY, FINANCIAL FLOWS. THE TERMS OF TRADE DO NOT CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND NONE OF THE FORECASTERS APPEARS TO EXPECT A LARGE INFLOW OF CAPITAL. THE PRINCIPAL SOURCE OF IMPROVED GROWTH, FOR MANY OF THE FORECASTERS, APPEARS TO BE "IMPROVEMENTS IN DOMESTIC POLICIES."