A Mathematical Model of the Risk of Nuclear Terrorism

In: The annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Band 607, S. 103-120

Abstract

This article presents a mathematical model for measuring the global risk of nuclear theft & terrorism. One plausible set of parameter values used in a numerical example suggests a 29 percent probability of a nuclear terrorist attack in the next decade. The expected loss over that period would be $1.17 trillion (undiscounted), or more than $100 billion per year. Historical & other evidence is used to explore the likely values of several of the key parameters, & policy options for reducing the risk are briefly assessed. The uncertainties in estimating the risk of nuclear terrorism are very large, but even a risk dramatically smaller than that estimated in the numerical example used in this article would justify a broad range of actions to reduce the threat. Figures, References. [Reprinted by permission of Sage Publications Inc., copyright 2006 The American Academy of Political and Social Science.]