DECISION-MAKING IN CRISES: AN INTRODUCTION

In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 6, Heft 3, S. 197-200

Abstract

In developing his revised `2-factor' or `2-step' approach to behavior, O. H. Mowrer has introduced fear & hope (& other related affects), as intervening or `mediating' variables between the environmental stimulus & the behavior of the S. 'Thus, where Behaviorism restricted itself to the simple, onestep S-R formula,' according to Mowrer, 'we are here confronted by the necessity of postulating, minimally, a 2-step, 2-stage formula: S-r: s-R, where S is the danger signal, r the response of fear which is conditioned to it, & where s is the fear, experienced as a drive, which elicits (after learning),response R.' In grossly oversimplified fashion the stimulus can be viewed as increasing or decreasing the level of a given affect which, in turn, shapes the organism's consequent behavior. If at all applicable to internat'l relations & the behavior of states, this basic hypothesis suggests that it is at least as important to study the intervening affect variables as it is to analyze the environmental stimuli, or the record of decisions reached & actions taken. Indeed, it is precisely in the affect phases of the interaction system between 2 or more states that one would expect to find the pulsing dynamics of internat'I behavior. Hostile states - trading reciprocally threatening or punishing stimuli - build explosive accumulations of affect which, by a kind of reaction process or 'Richardson process,' give rise to increasingly provocative decisions & actions. Modified AA.