THE INCUMBENCY EFFECT IN CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS A TEST OF TWO EXPLANATIONS

In: American journal of political science: AJPS, Band 27, Heft 1, S. 140-157

Abstract

TWO RECENT TRENDS IN AMERICAN POLITICS-A DECLINE IN THE NUMBER OFM COMPETITIVE CONGRESSIONAL SEATS AND AN INCREASE IN THE PARTISAN INDEPENDENCE OF THE ELECTORATE-ORGINATED IN THE MID-1960S AND PROIGRESSED AT SIMILAR RATES FOR THE NEXT DECADE. THE AUTHORS TESTED THE POSSIBILITY OF A CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THESE TWO PHENOMENA AND FOUND, CONTRARY TO PREVIOUS SPECULATION AND RESEARCH THAT PARTISAN DEALIGNMENT ACCOUNTS FOR LITTLE OF THE INCREASE IN INCUMBENCY VOTING. CONSEQUENTLY, THEY SUGGEST THAT THE CHANGE IN ELECTORAL FORTUNES OF INCUMBENT CONGRESSMEN HAS BEEN BROUGH ABOUT MAINLY BY CONGRESSMEN THEMSELVES AND NOT BY EXOGENOUS CHANGES IN THE ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT.