FERTILITY VALUES IN AMERICAN MAGAZINE FICTION, 1916-1956

In: Public opinion quarterly: journal of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, Band 24, Heft 1, S. 139-143

Abstract

An analysis was made of popular US magazine (mag) fiction published in 1916, 1936 & 1956 to determine whether or not changes in fertility values expressed in the fiction paralleled changes in actual fertility rates. A (total - sum) of 225 short stories (75 from each of the 3 yrs) was analyzed. The stories were selected randomly from the 8 US mags which published short stories during each of the yrs & had a circulation of more than 2 million in 1956. Each was analyzed independently & then jointly by 3 diff investigators who sought to determine the size of fam of each married character. Reliability of the procedure was above 95%. The crude birth rate in the US was 24.9 in 1916, 16.7 in 1936 & 24.9 in 1956. The (mean - average) number of children of the married couples appearing in the stories was 1.39 in 1916, .74 in 1936 & 1.08 in 1956. A t test of signif of the diff between means indicated that the diff's between 1916 & 1936 & between 1936 & 1956 were signif beyond the .05 level. On the other hand, the diff between 1916 & 1956 was not signif. Thus the hypothesis that changes in fertility values expressed in mass fiction would parallel changes in fertility rates was supported by the study. The (mean - average) number of children of the characters in 1956 was, however, somewhat smaller than that of the characters in 1916, whereas the crude birth rates were identical, but the smaller mean in 1956 may reflect a smaller completed fam size for couples in 1956 than for couples in 1916. AA.