An Entropy Measure of Uncertainty in Vote Choice

In: Electoral Studies, Band 24, Heft 3, S. 371-392

Abstract

We examine voters' uncertainty as they assess candidates' policy positions in the 1994 congressional election & test the hypothesis that the Contract with America reduced voter uncertainty about the issue positions of Republican House candidates. This is done with an aggregate evaluation of issue uncertainty & corresponding vote choice where the uncertainty parameterization is derived from an entropy calculation on a set of salient election issues. The primary advantage is that it requires very few assumptions about the nature of the data. The entropic model suggests that voters used the written & explicit Republican agenda as a means of reducing issue uncertainty without substantially increasing time spent evaluating candidate positions. 1 Table, 1 Figure, 1 Appendix, 69 References. [Copyright 2005 Elsevier Ltd.]