Direktkandidaten und die Wahlerfolge ihrer Partei im deutschen Zweistimmensystem. Das Beispiel der Bundestagswahl 2013 in Stuttgart

In: Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen: ZParl, Band 45, Heft 4, S. 775-795

Abstract

In the German mixed electoral system, district candidates are of two-fold importance. In those cases in which the electorate evaluate them in a positive manner, they help a party to win the district mandate and they may increase the party's (second) votes locally. But how parties are viewed is also important for both purposes. As an exit-poll for the two Stuttgart constituencies in 2013 shows, parties are on average better evaluated than candidates, if the latter are evaluated at all. If both are rated, most voters' judgement of the party and their candidates are in concurrence; the candidate of the best rated party receives the first vote und the best party the second vote (consonance voters). If the ratings differ, the two votes tend to differ, too (divergence voters) and candidate ratings become decisive when casting the first vote. Since the first vote is a majority election, the possible outcome, which can typically be assessed quite well, plays a role when deciding on whom to vote for. The candidate's rating is subtracted from the probability of him or her taking the vote. When SPD and Greens recommended to choose the Green candidate in one and the SPD candidate in the other Stuttgart constituency due to their respective higher chances of victory, this party strategy failed nevertheless. Some addressees would have been forced to choose a candidate whom they rated less favourably than the one of their own party. A party furthermore weakens its position if it advises against consonance voting. Adapted from the source document.