The 2006 Mexican Presidential Election: The Economy, Oil Revenues, and Ideology

In: PS: political science & politics, Band 40, Heft 1, S. 15-19

Abstract

Early analyses of the 2006 presidential election in Mexico have called
our attention to the post-election process, to accusations of fraud, to
the extent of partisan polarization, and to the prospects of democratic
consolidation, but few have offered an explanation of why President
Vicente Fox's National Action Party (PAN) was able to maintain
control of the executive office, even by the slim margin of 0.56%. In this
article, I argue that the first post-PRI-regime election split the
anti-PRI vote into different ideological and policy-oriented camps. This
made the 2006 race a choice between policy programs and priorities that
reflected economic concerns, and voters' assessments of the economy
were a central feature of candidate support. Economic growth in the second
half of the Fox administration as well as unusually high oil prices played
a crucial role in the election. They enabled the PAN candidate, Felipe
Calderón, to appeal for stability and to attack his main contender,
PRD candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador, as a danger to
it. Had economic growth remained slow and oil prices at the expected rate,
the PAN's chances to keep the presidency would have been slim,
especially against a popular leftist candidate who had a lead in the
polls, promised to help the poor at the expense of the rich, and voiced
harsh criticism against the "neoliberal" policies of the PRI
and PAN governments.