The Effects of Individual and Contextual Variables on Partisanship in Canada

In: European journal of political research: official journal of the European Consortium for Political Research, Band 19, Heft 4, S. 399-412

Abstract

Drawing on a large-scale Canadian postelection survey (1979) & aggregate data sets, individual voting behavior is analyzed, using partisanship as the dependent variable. The findings indicate that party weakness in a constituency, female New Democratic Party (NDP) candidates, & lack of an incumbent all result in more flexible partisanship. The importance of the electoral context to explain partisan change is emphasized; however, the effects of increased concentrations of Roman Catholics on Liberal partisanship, & of greater working-class populations on the NDP, demonstrate the importance of the constituency context as well. It is shown that an approach using both aggregate & individual-level data encounters problems of interpretion. Along with individual qualities & attitudes & consituency characteristics, consideration must also be given to whether Catholics in a constituency containing substantial numbers of coreligionists perceive this situation to exist, look to their religion as a cue for voting, & relate political parties to interest representation. It is argued that understanding of the relationship between micro- & macrolevels of analysis will remain exploratory until the means to investigate these perceptions become available. 6 Tables, 21 References. S. Millett