Urban Conflict and Voting Pattern: Some Tentative Generalizations from the Last State Election in Hamburg

In: Res publica: politiek-wetenschappelijk tijdschrift van de Lage Landen ; driemaandelijks tijdschrift, Band 37, Heft 2, S. 177-188

Abstract

In the Federal Republic of Germany, the accumulation of social problems in underprivileged urban districts (characterized by high unemployment & bad housing conditions) has resulted in increased prejudice against foreigners & general political dissatisfaction. Arguing that this political discontent is not remedied by the established political parties & results in low voting participation or "exit," on the one hand, & increasing protest voting or "voice," on the other, an ecological analysis of census data from the 1987 state elections in 98 Hamburg districts was conducted. Using variables relating to housing situation, education, & employment, it was found that low voter turnout as well as extreme Right voting were related to low education & housing conditions &, by implication, to high unemployment & presence of high amounts of immigrants. Results were consistent with data regarding left-wing & centralist protest voting by well-educated urban professionals & the middle class, respectively. 1 Table, 5 Figures, 1 Appendix. Adapted from the source document.