HISTORICAL PERIODS, TRENDS, AND CYCLES IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 14, Heft 4, S. 505-512

Abstract

The author's own work is seen to have been built upon the foundations of Quincy Wright's work. 3 aspects of his concerns & res interests have inspired the author's res: (1) predicting war as a function of att'al factors; (2) predicting the end of war as a function of casualties; & (3) predicting nat'l policies of expansion or withdrawal on the basis of nat'l moods. Here, the focus is on the prediction of nat'l policies as a function of alternative nat'l moods, (a) in terms of apparent cycles in the Amer past reinterpreted within a psychol'al framework, & (b) in terms of Q. Wright's larger concern with world peace & order, esp during the remainder of this cent. An alternation of nat'l introvert & extrovert moods is perceived in US nat'l policies. A study of Amer diplomatic history since 1776 supported tendencies in these directions. Wright agreed on the signif of this evidence. Assuming that these trends might have their sources directly in human nature & historical processes, it was predicted in 1950 that the US, which had already been deeply involved in world affairs for a decade, might maintain this extrovert position for 16 to 18 yrs ahead. Wright accepted the historical conclusions but doubted their applicability to the future. By 1970, Wright felt that there were indeed signs of a shift in the extrovert trend, beginning in 1967. The alternation was clearly not circular in character but spiral. A possible cycle of 'Freudian' moods is postulated & some conjectures are offered re the future. While there are great dangers ahead for mankind, the possibility for a peaceful & just world order by the yr 2000 exists. This projection is based on the notion that the 'super-ego' mood will stimulate a new flowering of the human spirit, & that the Amer people in particular will be able to strengthen their democracy. The importance of Quincy's contribution to these theories is indicated. 2 Tables. M. Maxfield.