INFORMATION FLOW AND PARTY INFLUENCE: THEORY, MEASUREMENT, AND POLICY CONSEQUENCES

In: Political behavior, Band 5, Heft 2, S. 161-188

Abstract

IN THIS PAPER THE AUTHOR PRESENT A THEORY OF PARTY INFLUENCE, BASED ON BAYESIAN DECISION THEORY, AS A PROCESS IN WHCIH THE VOTING DECISIONS OF INDIVIDUAL LEGISLATORS ARE INFLUENCED BY INFORMATION CONCERNING THE VOTES OR INTENDED VOTES OF THEIR RANK-AND-FILE COLLEAGUES. PROCEDURES DERIVED FROM THE THEORY ARE THEN USED TO ESTIMATE THE MAGNITUDE OF PARTY INFLUENCE RELATIVE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE PRESIDENT AND OF PARTY LEADERS, COMMITTEE CUE GIVERS, AND CONSTITUTES ON ROLL CALL VOTING IN THREE POLICY DOMAINS IN THE U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES. THE RESULTS IMPLY THAT PARTY INFLUENCE HAS IMPORTANT SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN CONSEQUENCES FOR PUBLIC POLICY.