STRATEGIC SHIFTS: SAFEGUARDING THE PUBLIC INTEREST? U.S. SENATORS, 1971-86

In: Legislative studies quarterly, Band 16, Heft 2, S. 263-280

Abstract

IN THE AMERICAN TWO-PARTY SYTEM, CHALLENGERS' POSITIONS TEND TO BE DEFINED RELATIVE TO THE INCUMBENTS'. INCUMBENTS THEREFORE TEND TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE PREFERENCES OF THE MEDIAN VOTERS WHEN SUCH MOVEMENT SHRINKS THE TURF TO WHICH THE CHALLENGERS CAN LAY CLAIM. IMPENDING ELECTIONS ENCOURAGE INCUMBENT SENATORS TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE IDEOLOGICAL PREFERENCES OF THE EXPECTED OPPOSITION, REGARDLESS OF THE PREFERENCES OF THEIR OWN CONSTITUENCIES. SINCE THE PREFERENCES OF THE OPPOSITION USUALLY LIE IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THOSE OF THE CONSTITUENCY, INCUMBENTS ARE USUALLY ENCOURAGED TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE IDEOLOGIES OF THOSE WHOM THEY REPRESENT. HOWEVER, WHEN THE PREFERENCES OF THE OPPOSITION LIE IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION FROM THOSE OF THE CONSTITUENCY OR--IRONICALLY--WHEN INCUMBENTS ARE ALREADY ACCURATELY REPRESENTING THE WISHES OF THEIR CONSTITUENCIES, IMPENDING ELECTIONS ENCOURAGE INCUMBENTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE PREFERENCES OF THOSE WHOM THEY REPRESENT.