THE PARTISAN BIAS IN SENATE ELECTIONS

In: American politics quarterly, Band 12, Heft 1, S. 89-100

Abstract

RECENT SENATE ELECTIONS HAVE SEEN A STRONG PRO-REPUBLICAN BIAS RESULTING FROM INROADS IN THE SMALL POPULATION STATES OVERREPRESENTED IN THE SENATE AND FROM LEAN VICTORY MARGINS. THE BIAS ALLOWS THE GOP TO CAPTURE A MAJORITY OF THE SEATS WITH LESS THAN A MAJORITY OF THE AGGREGATE SENATE VOTE (1978-1980) AND TO EXCEED THE HISTORICAL NORM WHEN THE DEMOCRATS WIN A LANDSLIDE (1982). ALTHOUGH THIS BIAS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE, THE INCREASED COMPETITIVENESS AND RESPONSIVENESS OF SENATE ELECTIONS MAY SEE THE GOP ALTERNATE BETWEEN THE THREADBARE MAJORITIES OF THE 97TH AND THE 98TH CONGRESSES AND (WHEN THE DEMOCRATS CAN STRING TOGETHER SEVERAL LANDSLIDES) VERY SMALL MINORITIES.