Is It the Economy, Stupid? The Role of the Economy in the Election

Abstract

Considers the role of the economy in the 2000 US presidential elections with an eye toward discerning why voter forecasting models that rely on economic retrospective voting theories were unable to predict the election results. Relevant economic issues in the election are delineated, & economic retrospective voting & the models' predictions for the 2000 election are discussed. The election is examined in this light, providing six explanations that may account for the inadequacy of the forecasting: (1) Al Gore won the popular vote, so the models did work. (2) A third-party candidate, Ralph Nader, undermined Gore's chances. (3) The economy lacks salience with the voters. (4) Gore ran a bad campaign. (5) The models might have worked with a different mix of variables. (6) Some unique dimension of the 2000 election rendered the models ineffective. It is concluded that the economy was not the only reason for the outcome of the 2000 elections. 1 Table. J. Zendejas