Evolving Nuclear Doctrine

Abstract

Meideiros focuses on the present & future direction of China's nuclear doctrine, highlighting the importance of Chinese beliefs regarding the mission of nuclear weapons to the country's overall nuclear posture. Western writing on this subject is speculative, rarely scrutinizing Chinese writings, which provide rich detail on the development of & influences on China's nuclear doctrine, including growing intellectual activity in military academic research organizations. It is contended that China's doctrine centers on sufficiency to meet changing national security needs rather than minimum deterrence, which is generally thought to be the case. Possible indicators of future changes in China's nuclear doctrine are put forth, including redefinition of doctrinal concepts, discussions of focused nuclear targeting, & development of MIRV warheads, as well as the nature of China's responses to US missile defense plans for modernization. It is concluded that continuing research on Chinese views regarding nuclear & wartime signaling could greatly improve US prospects for maintaining stability in the region. J. Stanton