The Balance of Power Paradox

Abstract

The primary proponents & theorists of balance of power contend that balancing is important in international politics because it can deter conflict. As Jack Levy's contribution notes, "potential hegemons anticipate that expansionist behavior would lead to the formation of a military coalition against them & refrain from aggression for that reason." Others believe that a preponderance of power deters war; ie, a relatively weak state would be deterred from engaging in conflict with a strong state, while the latter could obtain what it wants without war because of its opponents' fear. However, if the strong state is already engaged with another country or countries, the weaker state might perceive an opportunity to strike. What really needs to be weighed is the relative strategic balance. Kenneth Waltz's Theory of International Politics (1979) is drawn on to explain how this paradox in the balance of power can lead to inaccurate predictions of the behavior of weak & strong states in a bipolar system, as it did in the Vietnam War. The implications of this paradox for US hegemony in the 21st century are great. J. Stanton