Census Bureau Long-Term Racial Projections: Interpreting Their Results and Seeking Their Rationale

Abstract

It is argued that the justifications used by the US Census Bureau for making racial & ethnic counts of the population -- to measure progress toward racial equality & collect accurate figures for civil rights enforcement -- do not apply to its making projections regarding the future racial/ethnic composition of the country. The nature & methods of such projections are investigated here, & their use is traced to the mid-20th century, beginning with the Current Population Surveys. Reasons that the Bureau gives for making racial/ethnic projections are evaluated & then criticized for failing to incorporate future intermarriages & generational status. The potential effects of ignoring these factors are demonstrated in a historical case study (based on Census data) of four generations of Italian immigrants & their descendants. 3 Tables, 15 References. K. Hyatt Stewart