Will Terrorists Go Nuclear? A Reappraisal

Abstract

Examines the potential acquisition & use of nuclear weapons by terrorists, comparing points covered & concerns expressed in Jenkins's (1975) essay to the current situation. The list of known nuclear powers & those seeking nuclear capability is reviewed. It is shown how nuclear proliferation could increase the likelihood of nuclear terrorism. Trends in terrorist motives & tactics since the 1970s are reviewed. It is argued that terrorist operations have been low technology & tactically conservative, suggesting that nuclear terrorism is not as attractive or easy as previously thought. It is concluded that, with the slow erosion of self-imposed restrictions against using nuclear weapons & greater availability of nuclear weapons & weapons-grade nuclear material, the likelihood of nuclear terrorism has increased. T. Arnold