PREDICTING PRESIDENTIAL PERFORMANCE FROM CAMPAIGN CONDUCT: A CHARACTER ANALYSIS OF THE 1988 ELECTION

In: Presidential studies quarterly, Band 22, Heft 2, S. 279-294

Abstract

CHARACTER CLUES RELEVANT TO PREDICTING PRESIDENTIAL PERFORMANCE ARE OBSERVABLE AT EVERY STAGE OF A PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN. LEADING CONTENDERS FOR THE 1988 REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC NOMINATIONS EXHIBITED PERSONALITY FEATURES WHICH DISADVANTAGED THEIR CANDIDACIES AND WOULD ALSO HAVE ENDANGERED THEIR PRESIDENCIES. AT THE NATIONAL CONVENTIONS, GEORGE BUSH AND MICHAEL DUKAKIS OFFERED GLIMPSES OF THEIR PRESIDENTIAL PERSONALITIES THROUGH THEIR VICE PRESIDENTIAL SELECTIONS AND ACCEPTANCE SPEECHES. WHEN THE TWO FACED EACH OTHER DURING THE GENERAL ELECTION, BUSH DISPLAYED A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE NATURE OF THE PRESIDENCY AND APPEARED MORE CAPABLE OF FUNCTIONING SUCCESSFULLY IN IT. OVERALL, THE 1988 CAMPAIGN SUGGESTS HOW THE PRESIDENTIAL SELECTION SYSTEM CAN AND DOES PRODUCE VALUABLE INFORMATION FOR ASSESSING CANDIDATES' QUALIFICATIONS FOR THE WHITE HOUSE.