HOW PREDICTABLE ARE NEGOTIATIONS?

In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 11, Heft 4, S. 481-496

Abstract

The reasons are explored why the empirical study of the process of negotiation may not always help to resolve soc conflict. The theory of games (as in J. von Neumann & O. Morgenstern, THEORY OF GAMES AND ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR, Princeton, NJ: Princeton U Press, 1947) provides one kind of framework for giving advice to a practicing negotiator. It is shown that: (1) negotiations can be readily conceptualized as games having optimal strategies only if the behavior of the opponent is predictable, & (2) the behavior of the opponent in such games cannot be predicted. Negotiating behavior, under some circumstances, is quite unstable. On the basis of some theories of conflict resolution & soc-psychol'al res, exp's were conducted with 2 groups, 1 of which was a control group identical with the exp'al group except that it did not receive certain instructions. Each group consisted of 40 teams. Some negotiators of the exp'al group were told that their opponents were tough, others that they were soft, & still others were given no information at all. Toughness was the dependent variable of the analysis. The objective was to predict variation in toughness from the negotiator's background, ie, his age, sex, race, & personality. It was hyp'ed that a team which was told that its opponents were tough would become soft & vice versa. This hyp was not confirmed by the results of the exp's; there were even indications that the relationship might be the reverse. The introduction of information did, however, strongly affect the negotiating behavior. It completely reversed the relationship between a negotiator's sex, race, & personality in r with his toughness. Being Caucasian, well-adjusted & M led to softness under normal (control) conditions & to toughness under exp'al conditions (when information on the opponent was given). It is argued that diff's in negotiating behavior tend to be associated with cultural diff's. Well-adjusted M Caucasians who generally tend to be cooperative, it is suggested, became tough when given instruction because the latter in effect destroyed the moral superiority of cooperativeness, creating a morally neutral climate, & in this new climate new guide-lines were needed. It is concluded that simple exp's with non-professional negotiators are of little help in arriving at generalizations about professional negotiators, because the most important ingredient, the professional code, is missing from the exp's. What can be studied is the process of professionalization, ie, the development of norms & beliefs about the negotiation itself. M. Maxfield.