ESTIMATING NATIONAL POWER AND INTENTIONS

In: The annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Band 330, S. 145-155

Abstract

The rational formulation of US foreign policy is rendered extremely difficult by the great number of factors which must be taken into account by the decision-makers. These are beyond the capacity of any human brain, or even team of brains, to assimilate, evaluate, & reduce to forms upon which sound policy can be based. A weighted framework or model is needed, & some mechanical support for human thinking which would rationalize initial foreign policy estimation electrically. Such a device will also permit gaming. As a preliminary blueprint for this proposed device, The World Analyst classification system is used to divide national power into 10 `factors': geographic, demographic, pol'al, foreign affairs, econ, industry, transportation & communication, sci'fic, armed forces & biographic. To evaluate individual elements of national strength & weakness, these are cross- categorized on game boards in 5 panels: immediate national power, potentials for national power, destruction of such elements, aggressions between nations other than the US, & acts of aggression towards the US. Using a model of this sort a trial balance can be obtained between nations, & policy can be tested in advance. AA.