NOTES ON RECENT ELECTIONS THE DUTCH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION OF 1982

In: Electoral studies: an international journal, Band 2, Heft 1, S. 69-76

Abstract

FROM A TIME WHEN ELECTORAL SHIFTS IN THE NETHERLANDS WERE MINOR TREMORS HARDLY DETECTABLE TO OTHER THAN THE POLITICAL SEISMOLOGISTS, ELECTIONS NOW PRODUCE CHANGES OF GREATER FORCE ON THE POLITICAL RICHTER SCALE, EASILY NOTICEABLE BY EVEN THE MOST CASUAL OBSERVER. THE DECLINE IN RELIGIOUS VOTING SINCE THE MID 1960S AND THE BREAKDOWN IN SOCIALIZATION WHEREBY YOUNGER VOTERS NO LONGER AUTOMATICALLY FOLLOW THE PATTERNS OF THEIR PARENTS HAVE GREATLY INCREASED THE 'FLOATING VOTE.' AS MANY AS ONE-THIRD OF THE VOTERS NOW SWITCH THEIR PREFERENCE BETWEEN ELECTIONS, AND ALMOST ONE-FIFTH OF THE VOTERS NOW SAY THAT THEY DETERMINE THIS PREFERENCE DURING THE LAST WEEKS OR DAYS BEFORE THE ELECTION. THIS INCREASE IN FLOATING HAS BROUGHT ABOUT A LESS STABLE BALANCE AMONG THE POLITICAL PARTIES. BECAUSE THERE ARE NOW MORE VOTES TO BE WON DURING THE CAMPAIGN AND BECAUSE THE FORMATION OF THE CABINET IS MORE DEPENDENT UPON THE ELECTORAL RESULTS, THE IMPORTANCE OF CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS HAS INCREASED GREATLY. IT IS AGAINST SUCH A BACKGROUND THAT THE ELECTION OF 1982 MUST BE VIEWED AND INTERPRETED.