Presidential Election Forecasts

In: Forum: A Journal of Applied Research in Contemporary Politics, Band 6, Heft 4

Abstract

This paper contrasts election forecasting models that include macro-economic & financial market variables with forecasts by Fair & the Iowa Electronic Market (IEM), as well estimates made by widely recognized pollsters. The Financial Market Model proposed here incorporates the impact of election year stock market changes, including information about the recent financial crisis. However, the Financial Market Model grossly overestimates the challenger's vote share. The IEM forecast of 53.0%, the Fair forecast of 51.9%, & the Macro-Economic Market model forecast of 51.5% were close to the actual vote share of 53.2% for the Democratic nominee, but the Financial Market forecast 59.4% in this paper would have made the president-elect extremely happy. Adapted from the source document.