Strategies for Predicting Whether a Citizen Will Vote and Estimation of Electoral Outcomes

In: Public opinion quarterly: journal of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, Band 48, Heft 1B, S. 330-343

Abstract

A new methodological technique for estimating turnout in preelection studies of voters is described, & a new approach to the allocation of undecided voters presented. The estimation procedure utilizes a smaller number of predictors than past research, providing a more efficient method for telephone as well as personal interviews. A comparison of estimates based on a likelihood index & probability weighting results in equivalent predictive power, & appropriate applications for each technique are discussed. 2 Tables, 1 Appendix, 22 References. Modified AA.