Who Wins Nominations and Why?: An Updated Forecast of the Presidential Primary Vote

In: Political research quarterly: PRQ ; official journal of the Western Political Science Association and other associations, Band 60, Heft 1, S. 91-99

Abstract

This article builds on previous forecasts of the presidential primary vote by incorporating elite party endorsements and estimates of candidate electability. Elite endorsements are significant predictors of both parties' primary vote, but cash reserves are significant only for Democrats while Gallup poll results are significant only for Republicans. The model updated by the New Hampshire primary results indicates that the primary affects both parties' remaining primary vote, especially for Democrats. Republican nominations are largely predictable and determined mainly by effects occurring prior to the primaries, while Democratic nominations are relatively unpredictable before the primaries and are susceptible to momentum during the primaries.